photo by luanaveloso
Does VP selection matter in 2008? Or will it remain a race that focuses on the McCain’s attempts to derail the Good Ship Obama?
The Obama campaign has been very tight lipped about who it’s vetting for the VP slot. The odds are most definitely not in favor of Hillary Clinton, and stray supporters still fume at the notion that another woman could be Obama’s running mate, despite several viable candidates that mesh well with Obama’s platforms. (It begs the question, how effective were 18 million cracks in the illusive glass ceiling for women in politics, if only women named Hillary Clinton are allowed to benefit from those cracks?). Additionally, the recent announcement of the Democratic National Convention program including the VP candidate as a speaker on the night dedicated to veterans and “securing America’s future” leads some to suspect Gen. Wesley Clark or others, like Joe Biden, who have either military or foreign affairs experience could be #2.
For background, a recent AP-Ipsos poll shows Obama besting McCain with women, minority, and young voters.
Obama leads by 13 points among women, by 30 points among voters up to age 34, and by 55 points among blacks, Hispanics and other minorities, the poll shows.
Would picking a seasoned, white male make a difference with older, white Americans?
Where he’s lagging is among white voters, and with older ones in particular. Call me crazy, but isn’t it possible, just possible, that Obama’s lead is being inhibited by the fact that he is, you know, black? “Of course it is,” says another prominent Republican operative. “It’s the thing that nobody wants to talk about, but it’s obviously a huge factor.” . . .
In a number of key swing states, the percentage of voters who backed Clinton and who said that “the race of the candidates” was “important” in their decision was alarmingly high: in New Jersey, 9; in Ohio and Pennsylvania, more than 11. The writer John Judis reckons, therefore, that in the general election (where the voting population is markedly less liberal than in the primaries) in those states, “15 to 20 percent of Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents may not support [Obama] for the same reason.”
Would those who found race to be an issue in the primaries, be comforted by the sight of the typical, patriarchal, white male campaigning side-by-side with Obama until November, enough to mitigate the race factor for an Election mopping? Are we really having this conversation in 2008?
And since Obama is forced to put out the name of his VP candidate first, could McCain’s choice sway voters? McCain is probably going to pick a younger (anyone will be younger than McCain) male Republican. Would a pairing with Lieberman help claims of maverick bipartisan effort, or just piss off independents who’ve watched a Democrat-turned-Independent-caucasing-with Democrats become one of the fiercest critics of every statement made by Obama? Regardless, if Obama wins and Democrats take back their leads in legislature, Lieberman will likely be booted from his leadership roles within Senate and be turned over the Republicans.
Alternately, the media would like us to believe that Hillary’s PUMAs are a sizable group that will potentially sway the election, though Pew Research shows Democratic women overall have only shown a slight dip in support for the presumed Democratic nominee compared to recent elections. Could a female VP pick by McCain shift females tied to Obama and independent votesr? Or would it just be seen as the latest attempt at pandering by the candidates?
Even though Alaska’s Governor Sarah Palin is currently involved in some frackas about using her office to seek retribution against her former brother-in-law and she gave two thumbs up to Obama’s energy policy, she’s an incredibly popular Republican Governor in her home state. And former HP executive Carly Fiorina has been stumping for McCain for months.
Would a white running mate for Obama and a female one for McCain negate any gains either candidate received as a result?
Though it seems completely absurd, could race or gender be a deciding factor in a Presidential election, which holds real world consequences for the nation and the world? I ask because of a recent study released entitled: The Role of Celebrity Endorsements in Politics: Oprah, Obama, and the 2008 Democratic Primary.
we use geographic differences in subscriptions to O! – The Oprah Magazine and the sale of books Winfrey recommended as part of Oprah’s Book Club to assess whether her endorsement affected the Primary outcomes. We find her endorsement had a positive effect on the votes Obama received, increased the overall voter participation rate, and increased the number of contributions received by Obama . . .Our results suggest that Winfrey’s endorsement was responsible for approximately 1,000,000 additional votes for Obama.
If a celebrity endorsement can yield 1 million votes for Obama, shouldn’t the weightier issues of gender discrimination and racism have an effect in the voting booth as well, even if we’re less likely to admit to those charges?
PS. If you’re eager to be one of the first to know who Obama picks, you can sign up for text message updates via the Obama campaign. Supporters who provide their cell phone numbers will be the first notified.
To my knowledge, the McCain camp is not offering the same service. Anyone?
August 13, 2008 at 7:38 am |
As the race goes on, more and more friends of mine seem prone to mention how they just don’t know about Obama. They talk about his preacher’s style of speech making, or his strange and foreign to them background, or how all his followers are, you know, like followers. I listen to them and all I can hear is the excuses building as they prepare to enter that voter’s booth and choose.
I keep telling them to wait until the head to head debates to make their decision, that seeing the two side by side and having to answer the same questions will show McCain’s true inabilities and Obama’s strengths but I know from past experience that those things wont really make a difference to the mind made up. Every time Obama says or does something to trigger the “oh there he goes preaching again” reflex their minds will just cement shut further.
I came across a site, supposedly written by a Clinton follower from Florida called Pagan Power: http://paganpower.wordpress.com/ that I think shows just how deep this thread is really running. I suspect that this site might even be a Republican one running under a banner of liberalism to hide its intent. Still it is drawing a lot of attention by strumming the cult theme and the foreignness and the untrustworthiness of someone who would run against Hillary.
So here we are again. We chose the right person, the honest and nice person. But in politics, as Durocher used to say, nice finishes last. Obama’s centrist shift, his aggressive responses to McCain’s attack ads, his insistent demand that we as a nation have to negotiate our way through the international scene, all argue for him. But as you point out above, the fear, the years and years of fear of black men, may still be the excuse people will hide behind as they vote.
And oh yeah, I still like Claire McCasskill for a running mate.
August 13, 2008 at 9:40 am |
obama surrounds himself with experts, even those that disagree with him. he’ll bring science and reason back into the white house. he’ll hopefully even honor the constitution — breaking the law will actually be a crime all the way to the top of the totem pole.
mccain has has 26 years to do something meaningful in the senate and doesn’t show up to vote. He’s a do nothing Senator. It’s all good and well to talk about the energy problem being 30 years in the making, but he said nothing until he was running for president.
once people make up their minds, it’s hard to shift them. And I think voting for President is like high school elections all over again. The person with the best platform doesn’t always win.
As a woman in this election, the prospect of another right wing supreme court justice is terrifying. Th White House went out of its way to appoint/hire for career positions right wingers — balance needs to be righted.
now we just sit and wait.
August 13, 2008 at 2:28 pm |
Maybe . . . so. But I ain’t waiting and neither are you.